Surf Forecast – Tony Butt’s 3 Day Outlook for Europe / UK

Forcast__yellow-jq.jpg

Surf report for Monday 21 May 2012

 

Best bet

Northwest France

 

General synopsis at 12:00 UTC

Today’s chart contains a large, almost stationary low centred mid-way between the Azores and Greenland, with a fairly strong westerly fetch on its southern flank, just north of the Azores. To the south there is an elongated area of high pressure stretching from the east coast of North America to just west of Portugal. Finally there is a low pressure over central Europe, with a northerly flow between its western flank and the eastern flank of that high, affecting southern areas. Pressure gradients over northern areas are pretty slack.

 

Forecast

On Tuesday and Wednesday that low stays more or less stationary and steadily weakens, before pinching off into a full cut-off system and then disappearing by Thursday. High pressure persists over the southern part of the North Atlantic, and the low over central Europe shifts eastward and disappears by late Tuesday. From Tuesday onwards high pressure builds over Scandinavia and pressure gradients become very weak over the open North Atlantic. Pressure gradients over local areas will remain fairly slack throughout.

 

South Coast of England

Tuesday:

Very small or flat almost everywhere, apart from some small, poor-quality windseas in the far west, driven by moderate to fresh westerly winds

Wednesday:

Very small or flat at first, but some small long-period swell reaching exposed spots late in the day; winds are moderate westerlies

Thursday:

Winds switch to calm or very light north-easterlies and the swell continues, with wave heights around two or three feet at exposed spots

 

Northern France and Channel Islands

Tuesday:

Small and choppy with wave heights below three feet and moderate to fresh west-northwest winds

Wednesday:

Some small long-period swell arrives at exposed west-facing spots, with wave heights up to three feet and light northwest winds

Thursday:

The swell gradually decreases and winds veer north or northeast, light to moderate

 

East coast of England and Scotland

Tuesday:

Mixed north and northeast swells, with wave heights up to three or four feet at exposed spots and moderate northerly winds

Wednesday:

Wave heights gradually decrease and the northeast swell becomes more dominant; winds are light northerlies, veering east

Thursday:

The swell continues to decrease, becoming very small or flat in many places by the afternoon; winds are light north-easterlies

 

Southwest Norway

Tuesday:

Very small or flat in most places, with light northerly winds

Wednesday:

Continuing pretty flat almost everywhere, with light southeast winds, veering southwest during the day

Thursday:

Still very small or flat, although some short-period south swell might reach south-facing spots in the afternoon; light to moderate southerly winds

 

North Coast of Scotland

Tuesday:

Good-quality north swell with wave heights around four maybe five feet and moderate to fresh southeast winds

Wednesday:

Wave heights decrease but conditions remain good, with southeast winds, light becoming moderate

Thursday:

The north swell disappears and some small west swell arrives, but struggles to reach many spots; winds are light easterlies

 

Western Scotland and northwest Ireland

Tuesday:

Small, average-quality west swell with wave heights up to about four feet at the most exposed spots and moderate perhaps fresh southerly winds

Wednesday:

The west swell becomes more solid but struggles to reach many spots; wave heights up to five or six feet at west-facing spots and moderate to fresh southerly winds

Thursday:

Wave heights steadily drop and the swell continues from the west or southwest; winds are moderate southerlies

 

Southwest Ireland

Tuesday:

Average-quality west or southwest swell with wave heights up to five feet or so, and moderate to fresh southerly winds

Wednesday:

Wave heights increase to six feet or more from the west-southwest and the swell becomes more solid; winds are fresh southerlies

Thursday:

The swell gradually decreases and wind conditions gradually improve in many places, with moderate south-easterlies becoming light easterlies

 

Southwest Wales

Tuesday:

Very small or flat in many places, although you might see something in the far west later; winds are light to moderate westerlies

Wednesday:

A smallish, good-quality swell arrives with wave heights up to three or four feet at exposed spots and light southwest or west winds

Thursday:

The swell steadily decreases a bit but then remains fairly steady all day; winds are light north-easterlies

 

North Devon and Cornwall

Tuesday:

Average quality small swell with wave heights around three feet at exposed spots and light to moderate southerly winds

Wednesday:

A good-quality swell arrives, pushing wave heights up to five feet or so, with light to moderate southerly winds

Thursday:

The swell drops very gradually during the day, and winds become light north-easterlies

 

Northwest France

Tuesday:

Average-quality swell with wave heights around three or four feet, spoilt in most places by light to moderate westerly winds

Wednesday:

A solid west swell arrives, with wave heights reaching six feet or so by the afternoon and light southerly winds

Thursday:

The swell continues virtually unchanged, with wave heights around six feet and very light easterly winds

 

Southwest France

Tuesday:

Poor-quality, lumpy surf with wave heights up to five feet or so and moderate westerly winds

Wednesday:

Winds decrease to very light northerlies and the swell becomes more lined up, with wave heights around four feet

Thursday:

The swell continues to improve, up to five feet or so and of good quality, with light winds picking up from the northwest in the afternoon

 

North coast of Spain – east of Gijón

Tuesday: 

Poor-quality surfing conditions with wave heights around four feet and choppy, and moderate west or northwest winds

Wednesday: 

Things improve as a small west-northwest swell arrives and winds turn easterly, light to moderate; wave heights about three or four feet at exposed spots

Thursday:

The west-northwest swell becomes more lined up and increases slightly; winds are light easterlies becoming moderate north-easterlies in the afternoon

 

North coast of Spain – west of Gijón

Tuesday: 

Average-quality northwest swell with wave heights up to about five feet but a bit lumpy; winds are light and variable becoming moderate north-easterlies

Wednesday: 

The swell shifts more west but increases in size, hitting six feet at west-facing spots, with moderate northeast winds in the afternoon

Thursday:

The swell peaks in the morning and then remains steady; winds are light in the morning and moderate north-easterlies in the afternoon

 

West coast of Galicia

Tuesday:

Reasonable-quality northwest swell, becoming more west, with wave heights up to six feet at exposed spots and moderate to fresh southerly winds

Wednesday:

The west-northwest swell gradually increases, exceeding six feet at exposed spots by the afternoon, with light southerly winds

Thursday:

Wave heights continue to increase, peaking at around eight feet at some spots, with light to moderate northerly winds

 

Portugal

Tuesday:

Lumpy beachbreak surf with wave heights around three or four feet and light to moderate northerly winds

Wednesday:

A more solid west-northwest swell arrives, pushing wave heights up to five or six feet, with light to moderate northwest winds

Thursday:

Wave heights continue to increase all day, but swell quality remains average; winds are moderate north or northwest

 

Long-term prospects

After about Thursday the upper airstream becomes progressively weaker and more broken up, and pressure gradients remain very weak over the entire North Atlantic. So, not much action anywhere, apart from maybe some small, clean surf at the most exposed spots.

Advertisements

About lunasurfshop

I love surfing
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s