Tony Butt’s 3 Day Outlook for Europe / UK

Surf report for Monday 18 June 2012

 

Best bet

Galicia

 

General synopsis at 12:00 UTC

Not much action on today’s chart, apart from a flabby area of low pressure about 600 miles west of Ireland and another system just off the eastern seaboard of North America. The rest of the North Atlantic shows relatively slack pressure gradients with no significant storms anywhere, and a weak and broken upper airstream. Local pressure gradients are weak everywhere.

 

Forecast

Not much change over the next few days, as that mid-Atlantic low drifts in towards Ireland, perhaps strengthening on Thursday as high pressure pushes up from the south and squeezes the fetch on its southern flank. The other low on the far side moves up towards Newfoundland and then out into the open Atlantic, but remains too weak to produce any significant swell. Local pressure gradients remain slack at first but increase a bit later.

 

South Coast of England

Tuesday:

Very small or flat everywhere, with light southerly winds

Wednesday:

Continuing very small, with some tiny easterly chop generated by moderate easterly winds

Thursday:

Winds pick up to fresh perhaps strong south-westerlies, pushing wave heights up to two or three feet and choppy

 

Channel Islands

Tuesday:

Very small or flat, with light becoming moderate northerly winds

Wednesday:

Continuing very small, with winds swinging around to moderate easterlies and a barely-detectable swell arriving from the west

Thursday:

Winds change to fresh west or southwest and the sea becomes choppy on west-facing coasts

 

East coast of England and Scotland

Tuesday:

Light south-westerly winds and a tiny north swell, detectable only at the most exposed spots; otherwise flat

Wednesday:

Almost completely flat everywhere, with light variable winds

Thursday:

Winds pick up from the east, moderate then fresh for a while, and wave heights pick up to two or three feet and lumpy, perhaps cleaning up later

 

Southwest Norway

Tuesday:

Very small or flat almost everywhere, but a tiny south swell reaching exposed, south-facing spots; winds are light and variable

Wednesday:

Very small or flat, with light west or northwest winds

Thursday:

Continuing very small or flat, with light variable winds

 

North Coast of Scotland

Tuesday:

A very small north swell might produce two or three foot waves at the most exposed spots, with calm conditions or light northerly winds

Wednesday:

The small north swell continues, and winds are light at first but then pick up to moderate east or southeast

Thursday:

The surf becomes dominated by small, choppy windseas from the east, as winds continue to pick up to fresh perhaps strong easterlies

 

Western Scotland and northwest Ireland

Tuesday:

Very small or flat in most places with light variable winds

Wednesday:

Continuing very small, with a tiny north swell reaching the most exposed spots, accompanied by light to moderate southeast winds

Thursday:

Continuing very small or flat, with winds picking up from the southwest later, light to moderate

 

Southwest Ireland

Tuesday:

A small, poor-quality southwest swell with wave heights perhaps up to two or three feet and light southerly winds

Wednesday:

Wave heights increase a little but so do the winds, becoming moderate southerlies

Thursday:

Winds swing south-southwest and increase to moderate to fresh, and wave heights pick up considerably but conditions remain choppy

 

Southwest Wales

Tuesday:

A small, average-quality swell with wave heights around two feet at exposed spots and light or moderate southerly winds

Wednesday:

Flat in many places but the most exposed spots might still reach about two feet, with light southerly winds

Thursday:

Winds pick up to fresh south-westerlies, perhaps strong later in the west of the area, and the surf just becomes choppy without really picking up much

 

North Devon and Cornwall

Tuesday:

Very small or flat in many places, although in the far west a small, cleanish swell might produce surf up to about two feet, with light southerly winds

Wednesday:

Continuing very small, with wave heights around two feet in the far west, with light easterly winds

Thursday:

Winds pick up to moderate then fresh southerlies and wave heights pick up, but the surf quality is very poor

 

Northwest France

Tuesday:

A very small west swell with wave heights up to about two feet if you’re lucky; light northwest winds in the afternoon

Wednesday:

The tiny west swell continues, with windless conditions in the morning and light westerlies later

Thursday:

Winds pick up to moderate to fresh south-westerlies and wave heights pick up to about three feet and choppy

 

Southwest France

Tuesday:

A small, decreasing swell with wave heights perhaps reaching three feet at the most exposed swell-magnets; light northerly breezes in the afternoon

Wednesday:

The surf goes pretty flat almost everywhere, with light or moderate northerly winds picking up in the afternoon

Thursday:

A slight increase in wave heights, perhaps up to two feet or so, with light winds in the morning and moderate northerlies in the afternoon

 

North coast of Spain – east of Gijón

Tuesday:

A very small, average-quality swell, with wave heights perhaps reaching three feet at first but decreasing to almost nothing later; light north or northeast winds

Wednesday:

The surf becomes flat in most places, with moderate northeast winds picking up in the afternoon

Thursday:

A slight increase in wave heights at the most exposed spots, with moderate north or northeast winds

 

North coast of Spain – west of Gijón

Tuesday:

A decreasing west swell, about three feet at first at west-facing spots, plus some short-period east swell at north-facing spots; winds are moderate north-easterlies

Wednesday:

Very small west swell, just about surfable at westerly exposures, with light northerly winds

Thursday:

Wave heights pick up slightly, perhaps reaching two or three feet at the most exposed spots, with light northerly winds

 

West coast of Galicia

Tuesday:

Mixed northwest swell and northerly windseas, with wave heights around three feet and fresh northerly winds

Wednesday:

Conditions clean up as winds become light and variable, leaving a small swell with wave heights up to three feet at exposed spots

Thursday:

Wave heights pick up from the west and become a little more solid; winds are light at first becoming moderate northerlies later

 

Portugal

Tuesday:

Poor-quality northwest swell accompanied by moderate to fresh northwest winds; wave heights around four feet and choppy

Wednesday:

Winds drop to very light westerlies, leaving small peaky surf with wave heights up to about three feet at northwest exposures

Thursday:

Wave heights pick up slightly but conditions deteriorate again, with winds picking up to moderate west or northwest

 

Long-term prospects

Now we are moving towards mid-summer, the charts are looking very stable, with very small north-south temperature gradients to drive any weather systems, resulting in very little movement at all levels in the atmosphere. The best hope for surf at this time of year is a cut-off system north of the Azores.

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