Surf Forecast for Europe with Tony Butt

Surf report for Thursday 14 February 2013

 

Best bet

Southwest France

 

General synopsis at 12:00 UTC

Today’s chart shows two slow-moving centres of low pressure in the north of the North Atlantic, the first just east of Newfoundland and the second just north of Scotland. Between these two centres is a weak ridge, and to the south there is a large expanse of relatively high pressure. Local pressure gradients are moderate in the north, weak in the south.

 

Forecast

On Friday the Newfoundland low will spawn a peripheral centre to the south, which will deepen and swing eastwards, expected just north of the Azores by Saturday before shifting north on Sunday. A westerly fetch on its southern flank will generate some surf for west- and southwest-facing coasts. The low near Scotland will quickly move north and disappear, and a ridge of high pressure will form from the Iberian Peninsula to the North Sea. Local pressure gradients will remain moderate in the north and weaker in the south.

 

South Coast of England

Friday:

Mostly very small or flat apart from some tiny long-period swell at the most exposed spots in the west of the area; winds are light west or northwest

Saturday:

Very small or flat almost everywhere, with light to moderate southerly winds

Sunday:

Very small or flat with some tiny short-period windseas generated by moderate to fresh south or southeast winds

 

Channel Islands

Friday:

Small long-period swell plus some lumpy short-period swell; wave heights around three feet at exposed spots with light northwest winds

Saturday:

The sea becomes less lumpy but wave heights drop below three feet everywhere, with light to moderate southerly winds

Sunday:

Very small or flat at first, but some small longer-period swell might filter through during the day; winds are fresh south or southeast

 

East coast of England and Scotland

Friday:

Very small or flat in most places, although some weak southerly swell might reach northern areas; winds are moderate west or northwest

Saturday:

Very small or flat, with moderate southerly winds

Sunday:

Continuing very small or flat in most places, with some small short-period swell hitting southeast-facing spots in the north, generated by fresh southerly winds

 

Southwest Norway

Friday:

A large, stormy south swell quickly decreases during the day, with wave heights up to about five feet at exposed spots at first, and fresh to strong southeast winds

Saturday:

Small, short-period south swell with wave heights up to two or three feet at exposed spots, accompanied by fresh southerly winds

Sunday:

Continuing very small short-period south swell, with moderate to fresh southerly winds

 

North Coast of Scotland

Friday:

Cleanish west swell struggling to reach most spots apart from the most exposed west-facing ones; wave heights up to about five feet with moderate westerly winds

Saturday:

Wave heights decrease as the west swell loses its punch, perhaps up to three or four feet at the most extreme westerly exposures, with light to moderate southerly winds

Sunday:

Very small or flat in most places, with moderate to fresh southerly winds

 

Western Scotland and northwest Ireland

Friday:

Lumpy, decreasing west swell with wave heights up to about six or seven feet at exposed spots at first, and light to moderate southerly winds

Saturday:

A new swell arrives from the southwest, failing to reach many northwest-facing spots; wave heights up to about five feet at exposed spots with fresh southerly winds

Sunday:

The southwest swell increases, perhaps exceeding six feet at west- and southwest-facing spots, with fresh perhaps strong southerly winds

 

Southwest Ireland

Friday:

Fairly poor quality, decreasing west swell with wave heights up to six feet or so at exposed spots at first, accompanied by moderate to fresh southerly winds

Saturday:

More swell appears from the southwest, keeping wave heights up to five or six feet at exposed spots, but with strong southerly winds

Sunday:

The southwest swell increases, exceeding eight feet at many spots, but of poor quality with strong perhaps gale-force southerly winds

 

Southwest Wales

Friday:

Small, cleanish swell with wave heights up to three or four feet at exposed spots and light west or southwest winds

Saturday:

The swell drops a notch and decreases in quality; wave heights around three feet with moderate southerly winds

Sunday:

More swell arrives, increasing wave heights but accompanied by moderate to fresh south or southeast winds

 

North Devon and Cornwall

Friday:

Average-quality swell with wave heights around four or five feet at exposed spots in the west, with light southwest winds

Saturday:

The swell drops and winds increase to fresh southerlies; wave heights up to about three or four feet

Sunday:

More swell arrives, pushing wave heights up to six feet or so at exposed spots later, with fresh to strong south or southeast winds

 

Northwest France

Friday:

Decreasing lumpy west swell with wave heights up to six or seven feet at first, and light westerly winds

Saturday:

Wave heights continue decreasing, down to four feet or below by the end of the day, as winds increase to moderate or fresh south-easterlies

Sunday:

Small and choppy at first but then more swell arrives; winds are fresh south-easterlies

 

Southwest France

Friday:

Peaky beachbreak surf with wave heights around six feet and light variable winds

Saturday:

The swell decreases but conditions remain quite good, around four perhaps five feet with light easterly winds

Sunday:

Wave heights continue to decrease, but remain surfable at least during the first half of the day; winds are light south-easterlies

 

North coast of Spain – east of Gijón

Friday:

Average-quality west-northwest swell with wave heights up to five feet or so at exposed spots and light variable winds

Saturday:

Wave heights drop, down to perhaps three or four feet by the end of the day, with moderate easterly winds

Sunday:

The swell continues to drop although remains surfable most of the day; winds are light to moderate south or southeast

 

North coast of Spain – west of Gijón

Friday:

Average-quality west swell with wave heights up to about five feet at westerly exposures but struggling to reach north-facing spots, with light easterly winds

Saturday:

The swell gradually decreases, down to three or four feet at exposed spots by the end of the day, with light variable winds

Sunday:

Very small at first but then more swell begins to arrive from the west; windless conditions or light southerlies

 

West coast of Galicia

Friday:

Average to good quality swell with wave heights up to six or seven feet and light northeast winds

Saturday:

The swell drops quite fast, down to three or four feet at exposed spots by afternoon, with winds increasing to moderate perhaps fresh southerlies

Sunday:

More swell arrives, with increasing wave heights, but accompanied by fresh to strong southerly winds

 

Portugal

Friday:

Cleanish west-northwest swell with wave heights around four or five feet and light variable winds

Saturday:

Wave heights drop, but conditions remain fairly clean; around three feet at exposed spots with light westerly winds in the afternoon

Sunday:

Winds increase to fresh southerlies and more swell arrives, pushing wave heights up to six feet or so

 

Atlantic coast of Andalucia

Friday:

Good quality long-period swell with wave heights around three or four feet at exposed spots and light variable winds

Saturday:

The swell gradually drops, below two feet by the end of the day at most spots, with light southwest winds

Sunday:

Very small or flat with light southwest winds

 

Long-term prospects:

Over the next week or so it looks like that ridge on the eastern side of the North Atlantic will persist, and one or two lows will form in the mid North Atlantic, with westerly fetches displaced to the south. Expect the most action at west and perhaps some southwest-facing coasts.

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